Markets

Market regime

Risk-on

65.2

Index trend83.3

Volatility89.8

Market breadth20.9

Rates34.0

Liquidity · ETF proxy59.8

Macro context84.5

What changed

Compared with 09/21/2026: Strong risk-on → Risk-on.

The regime feeds each stock's Market Compatibility and Timing: a regime change can move these scores even without company news. It is neither advice nor a forecast.

Comparison by family

Family	09/21/2026	Today	Δ
Index trend	83	83	0
Volatility	90	90	-0
Market breadth	—	21	—
Rates	—	34	—
Liquidity · ETF proxy	61	60	-1
Macro context	—	84	—

The regime a week ago is recomputed only with the data available then: families acquired later show as unavailable, not estimated.

Main markets

Market	Last close	1 session	5 sessions	20 sessions	SMA50	SMA200	Data as of
S&P 500 SPY	771.35	0.5%	1.3%	0.0%	✓	✓	09/25/2026
Nasdaq 100 QQQ	744.50	0.5%	3.2%	3.2%	✓	✓	09/25/2026
Russell 2000 IWM	281.97	0.1%	-0.7%	-6.0%	✗	✓	09/25/2026
S&P 500 equal weight RSP	211.11	0.4%	-0.6%	-4.7%	✗	✓	09/25/2026
US Treasuries 20+ years TLT	79.32	-0.1%	-2.4%	-4.6%	✗	✗	09/25/2026
High-yield bonds HYG	77.86	-0.0%	-0.9%	-2.5%	✗	✗	09/25/2026
Oil USO	148.33	-3.1%	-3.6%	14.1%	✓	✓	09/25/2026
US dollar UUP	28.62	-0.2%	0.8%	2.1%	✓	✓	09/25/2026
VIX implied volatility ^VIX	14.87	-5.1%	0.4%	3.0%	✗	✗	09/25/2026

Reference ETFs and indices from stored daily prices: price changes without dividends; ✓/✗ = above/below the moving average. Gold and bitcoin are not connected yet. · market-assets-v1

Market breadth

How broad the move is: sectors above their averages and the equal-weight versus cap-weight S&P 500. Low = gains concentrated in few stocks.

Market breadth20.9/100

Sectors above both averages3/1150- and 200-session averages

Equal weight versus cap weight-4.5%RSP/SPY, 50 sessions

Sector detail (SPDR ETFs)

ETF	Sector	SMA50	SMA200	Versus SPY, 50 sessions
XLK	Technology	✓	✓	7.6%
XLE	Energy	✓	✓	5.9%
XLV	Healthcare	✓	✓	2.7%
XLC	Communication Services	✓	—	-2.4%
XLB	Basic Materials	—	—	-4.8%
XLF	Financial Services	—	✓	-6.0%
XLP	Consumer Defensive	—	—	-6.9%
XLI	Industrials	—	—	-7.9%
XLY	Consumer Cyclical	—	—	-8.3%
XLRE	Real Estate	—	—	-11.0%
XLU	Utilities	—	—	-15.4%

Mean of two scores: share of positions above SMA50 and SMA200 across the 11 sector ETFs, and the RSP/SPY ratio change over 50 sessions from −5% to +5% mapped to 0–100. The screener sample is never used as market breadth. The versus-SPY column ranks sectors by recent leadership; it is descriptive and does not enter the breadth score, but it is the same figure used by sector strength in each stock's Compatibility.

US Treasury rates

Market regime «rates» factor from model v1.7, from official US Treasury yields. Higher = more supportive rate backdrop under a declared rule; not a forecast.

Rates factor34.0/100

10Y − 2Y0.36percentage points

10Y, 20-session change0.50percentage points

Yield curve · 2026-09-25

Maturity	Yield
3M	4.24%
2Y	4.81%
10Y	5.17%
30Y	5.49%

Mean of two scores: 10Y−2Y slope from −1 to +1 point mapped to 0–100, and 10Y change over 20 sessions from +0.5 to −0.5 point mapped to 0–100. A session counts from 18:00 ET on its date. After 5 days without data the factor stays unavailable.

{
  "value": 34.00000000000001,
  "version": "treasury-rates-v1",
  "observation_id": "53c769cf065b8397d81247a34a531a0929deee2c3110638c5538bc5d74b92ad9",
  "components": {
    "slope_10y_2y": {
      "raw": 0.3600000000000003,
      "score": 68.00000000000001
    },
    "change_10y": {
      "raw": 0.5,
      "score": 0.0,
      "from_session": "2026-08-27"
    }
  },
  "warnings": [],
  "session": "2026-09-25",
  "yields": {
    "3m": 4.24,
    "2y": 4.81,
    "10y": 5.17,
    "30y": 5.49
  }
}

Official macro agenda

Dates scheduled by the Federal Reserve, BLS and BEA that can move the whole market. Official calendars only: published values are neither read nor forecast.

Personal income, spending and PCE inflation2026-09-30in 2 days

GDP2026-09-30in 2 days

Employment report2026-10-02in 4 days

Next 30 days

JOLTS job openings

2026-09-29 14:00 UTC

BLS · scheduled

Materiality 45 · mediumOfficial calendar ↗

Personal income, spending and PCE inflation

2026-09-30 12:30 UTC

BEA · scheduled

Materiality 65 · mediumOfficial calendar ↗

GDP

2026-09-30 12:30 UTC

BEA · scheduled

Materiality 55 · mediumOfficial calendar ↗

Employment report

2026-10-02 12:30 UTC

BLS · scheduled

Materiality 75 · highOfficial calendar ↗

Trade balance

2026-10-06 12:30 UTC

BEA · scheduled

Materiality 30 · lowOfficial calendar ↗

CPI inflation

2026-10-14 12:30 UTC

BLS · scheduled

Materiality 75 · highOfficial calendar ↗

PPI producer prices

2026-10-15 12:30 UTC

BLS · scheduled

Materiality 50 · mediumOfficial calendar ↗

Import/export prices

2026-10-16 12:30 UTC

BLS · scheduled

Materiality 30 · lowOfficial calendar ↗

FOMC rate decision

2026-10-28

Federal Reserve · scheduled

Materiality 80 · highOfficial calendar ↗

Method, limitations and rules

Materiality by release type (FOMC 80, +5 with projections; CPI and employment 75; PCE 65; GDP 55; PPI 50; JOLTS and ECI 45; others 30). Declared rule, not calibrated, the same for every stock. The agenda does not change scores.

Last checked UTC: Federal Reserve 2026-09-28T10:51:02.800119Z · BLS 2026-09-28T10:51:03.929073Z · BEA 2026-09-28T10:51:05.298266Z · macro-materiality-v1

{
  "version": "macro-materiality-v1",
  "bands": {
    "high": 70,
    "medium": 40
  },
  "releases": {
    "fomc": 80,
    "cpi": 75,
    "employment": 75,
    "pce": 65,
    "gdp": 55,
    "ppi": 50,
    "jolts": 45,
    "eci": 45,
    "productivity": 30,
    "import_prices": 30,
    "trade": 30
  },
  "projections_bonus": 5,
  "source_quality": 95,
  "stale_confidence_multiplier": 0.6,
  "maximum_calendar_age_hours": 168,
  "recent_days": 7,
  "key_releases": [
    "fomc",
    "cpi",
    "employment",
    "pce",
    "gdp"
  ]
}

Official macro context

Low volatilityGrowth-ledDisinflationary

Descriptive context labels: they do not enter any score.

Macro factor84.5/100

CPI inflation, 12 months3.4%3-month change -0.9%

Unemployment4.1%points above 12-month low: 0.0

Official BLS monthly data (CPI-U, unemployment rate). Mean of: inflation level (5% → 0, 2% → 100), its 3-month change, rise in unemployment from its 12-month low (+0.5 points → 0). Unpublished months, such as October 2025 during the shutdown, stay missing. Latest month: 2026-08.

Source / Data as of

HYG/IEF is an indirect credit proxy, not a spread measure. Missing factors are not estimated.

[
  {
    "id": "3318388d30812587585801190486bac71d5e5aa95f04a05e81f6989006596557",
    "symbol": "SPY",
    "source": "yfinance",
    "data_as_of": "2026-09-25T20:15:00.000000Z"
  },
  {
    "id": "255e03a356318cf612ad86bda2b23748fd19a6b07e7ecd5d486e553dbfd3eab1",
    "symbol": "QQQ",
    "source": "yfinance",
    "data_as_of": "2026-09-25T20:15:00.000000Z"
  },
  {
    "id": "7128b06dca0e82c3fa3629bde5e781d0ea1f37d63e1368683ad7f6df392fa5ec",
    "symbol": "IWM",
    "source": "yfinance",
    "data_as_of": "2026-09-25T20:15:00.000000Z"
  },
  {
    "id": "a1f20a410406544f570be6e891887ea421338f07cd8ec0c40e234b3fe507170e",
    "symbol": "^VIX",
    "source": "yfinance",
    "data_as_of": "2026-09-25T20:15:00.000000Z"
  },
  {
    "id": "7d890475226e5e83a1b314328676b65e4d216a8a4208f49a1debd2667f4bdc30",
    "symbol": "HYG",
    "source": "yfinance",
    "data_as_of": "2026-09-25T20:15:00.000000Z"
  },
  {
    "id": "73395ed58b87a7c7790fd8890a1d382c5b82921f0573989f9216d972ab0c7234",
    "symbol": "IEF",
    "source": "yfinance",
    "data_as_of": "2026-09-25T20:15:00.000000Z"
  },
  {
    "id": "02c35d74d0f7d5e83da0468f1115aa839527f8a65be52b26ac16ebe8807a60d7",
    "symbol": "^BLSDATA",
    "source": "bls-data",
    "data_as_of": "2026-09-23T17:18:50.330452Z"
  },
  {
    "id": "5b307564825845aa24945095ef7ca64993cfd40c2b9b108321c2ce99c16556af",
    "symbol": "XLK",
    "source": "yfinance",
    "data_as_of": "2026-09-25T20:15:00.000000Z"
  },
  {
    "id": "e0a033b3ea36ae38b034bf515319c92eca135e43ce6eac608fba752ab3b69c5b",
    "symbol": "XLF",
    "source": "yfinance",
    "data_as_of": "2026-09-25T20:15:00.000000Z"
  },
  {
    "id": "9b1f01e94871433a15ed6eb173d1cd7dccd34475026f554c2c6fdf39c758fea4",
    "symbol": "XLE",
    "source": "yfinance",
    "data_as_of": "2026-09-25T20:15:00.000000Z"
  },
  {
    "id": "99be2f2aaca22c964e0c6e0164f1cdc142fccfaf5279fd94fdb988e0e6affce9",
    "symbol": "XLV",
    "source": "yfinance",
    "data_as_of": "2026-09-25T20:15:00.000000Z"
  },
  {
    "id": "85cf2b2b1214d7b33186315fe34f6fff3430025bbde9b99126d2b1e80deb1d47",
    "symbol": "XLI",
    "source": "yfinance",
    "data_as_of": "2026-09-25T20:15:00.000000Z"
  },
  {
    "id": "35c9aa9600308641491b495f2c01128f63a22ac06570411f19a5785dfc42b004",
    "symbol": "XLY",
    "source": "yfinance",
    "data_as_of": "2026-09-25T20:15:00.000000Z"
  },
  {
    "id": "3dda3f37bcee7e373d63d51a3da5bb85e7025d6464c5fa9c90d52dc9bc2e81a7",
    "symbol": "XLP",
    "source": "yfinance",
    "data_as_of": "2026-09-25T20:15:00.000000Z"
  },
  {
    "id": "404fcab910967a82f8c98942a45881c84afe5d121e512116883bdfdedaf5a05f",
    "symbol": "XLU",
    "source": "yfinance",
    "data_as_of": "2026-09-25T20:15:00.000000Z"
  },
  {
    "id": "c7a62a8b5c4978e7599e3bc509b566133f7c3dae45970e4883ec25af50771626",
    "symbol": "XLB",
    "source": "yfinance",
    "data_as_of": "2026-09-25T20:15:00.000000Z"
  },
  {
    "id": "dfe32a842337dcfae30c9ec67b67d2d58a6304fd5467439fedf7456924a39933",
    "symbol": "XLRE",
    "source": "yfinance",
    "data_as_of": "2026-09-25T20:15:00.000000Z"
  },
  {
    "id": "51e19054726ea3b7ef0e69f24fbe2cbbdb1926e6b434d9b86d42467b194c2f60",
    "symbol": "XLC",
    "source": "yfinance",
    "data_as_of": "2026-09-25T20:15:00.000000Z"
  },
  {
    "id": "43299a371c54a3804f923b74eb5e0476d36bfc106c90e4a5811ab23de6019be0",
    "symbol": "RSP",
    "source": "yfinance",
    "data_as_of": "2026-09-25T20:15:00.000000Z"
  },
  {
    "id": "53c769cf065b8397d81247a34a531a0929deee2c3110638c5538bc5d74b92ad9",
    "symbol": "^USTCURVE",
    "source": "us-treasury",
    "data_as_of": "2026-09-25T22:00:00.000000Z"
  }
]

Model scores, not personal recommendations. Missing data is not zero.
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