Current reading
Why now: Earnings revisions 70
Main concern: rich valuation
Market regime: Risk-on · investment-intelligence-v1.22
The Progressive Corporation
PGRLatest close: 2026-09-25 · USD
Trading Opportunity—Unavailable
Investment Opportunity36.7low
Company Quality44.4moderate
Valuation34.4low
Momentum25.1low
Timing—Unavailable
Risk29.0low
Market Compatibility39.6low
Confidence56.3/100
What could change the thesis
- Next earnings on 10/14/2026 (date confirmed by the provider), in 15 days. Details
- Analyst estimates are rising (revisions 70). Details
- P/E 10.7 below its own historical median of 20.8 (9 years). Details
- Market regime: Risk-on; stock compatibility 40. Details
Dated facts already in the analysis, not forecasts. Each item links to the section that explains it. · thesis-watch-v1
Why these scores
Confidence measures data/model reliability, not probability of profit. 0 = relatively low risk · 100 = very high risk
Compared with companies observed by Krazerr, not the entire sector. (43)
Peer companies (43)
Company Quality · 44.4
Coverage: 84.6% · company-quality-v1.5
| Why this score | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Business efficiency | — | — |
| Cash flow | — | — |
| Earnings quality | 10.0 | 1.8 |
| Financial strength | — | — |
| Growth | 45.5 | 16.5 |
| Profitability | 57.3 | 26.0 |
Confidence · 56.3
Coverage: 80.0% · confidence-v1.2
| Why this score | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | 87.9 | 22.0 |
| Cross source agreement | 40.0 | 6.0 |
| Event certainty | 100.0 | 5.0 |
| Financial discrepancy | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Freshness | 58.5 | 8.8 |
| Model agreement | — | — |
| Source reliability | 72.7 | 14.5 |
| Stability | — | — |
Investment Opportunity · 36.7
Coverage: 85.0% · investment-opportunity-v1
| Why this score | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Company quality | 44.4 | 18.3 |
| Market compatibility | 39.6 | 7.0 |
| Momentum | 25.1 | 3.0 |
| Risk adjustment | — | -1.7 |
| Valuation | 34.4 | 10.1 |
Market Compatibility · 39.6
Coverage: 100.0% · market-compatibility-v2.2
| Why this score | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Breadth | 59.7 | 6.0 |
| Liquidity | 46.7 | 4.7 |
| Rates | 49.7 | 7.5 |
| Sector strength | 25.0 | 6.2 |
| Trend | 38.9 | 9.7 |
| Volatility | 36.7 | 5.5 |
Exposures measured over 252 sessions: S&P 500 beta -0.50 (t -3.7); return per +1 point in the 10Y -0.014 (t -0.6).
Compatibility = 50 + (regime factor − 50) × exposure. Exposures scaled (beta 1.5 and 0.20 per point = full exposure) and shrunk when |t| < 2. Historical sensitivity, not a forecast.
Sector Financial Services (XLF): above the 50-session average ✗, the 200-session average ✓; 50-session strength versus SPY -6.0%.
Sector strength = mean of the sector ETF trend (0, 50 or 100 by averages exceeded) and its change relative to SPY from −5% to +5% mapped to 0–100. It describes the sector, not the company.
Momentum · 25.1
Coverage: 100.0% · momentum-v1.1
| Why this score | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Highs | 57.0 | 6.3 |
| Multi timeframe | 32.6 | 7.2 |
| Relative strength | 23.9 | 6.6 |
| Trend | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Volume | 29.3 | 4.9 |
Risk · 29.0
Coverage: 100.0% · risk-v1.3
| Why this score | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 50.6 | 8.9 |
| Event | 31.8 | 5.6 |
| Financial | — | — |
| Liquidity | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Rate sensitivity | 2.6 | 0.3 |
| Valuation | 65.6 | 11.6 |
| Volatility | 11.0 | 2.6 |
Timing · —
Coverage: 42.5% · timing-v1.1
| Why this score | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Entry position | 100.0 | — |
| Risk reward | — | — |
| Short term | 57.6 | — |
| Structure | — | — |
| Volume confirmation | 39.1 | — |
Not computed: data available for 42.5% of the weights, below the 60.0% threshold. A missing value is not zero.
Timing unavailable: this stock is not among the screener setups, so the plan's technical structure, entry, target and invalidation are missing. Extension, RSI and volume alone are not enough (coverage below 60%). A plan rebuilt from prices would always enter at the latest close: we do not invent one.
Trading Opportunity · —
Coverage: 70.0% · trading-opportunity-v1
| Why this score | Score | Δ |
|---|
Trading Opportunity requires Momentum and Timing: without a screener setup Timing is missing, so it is not computed. Investment Opportunity remains available.
Valuation · 34.4
Coverage: 100.0% · valuation-v1.4
| Why this score | Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Absolute | — | — |
| Cash flow | — | — |
| Growth adjusted | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Historical | 100.0 | 21.5 |
| Peers | 29.5 | 12.9 |
Financial statements and earnings quality
Annual metrics prioritize SEC statements when periods, currency and definitions are consistent. Where official coverage is missing, the fallback source is shown. Ambiguous data is excluded; current metrics remain separate.
| Metric | Value | Source | Fiscal periods used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow growth | 15.95% | Yahoo | 2025-12-31, 2024-12-31 |
| Interest coverage (×) | 52.16 | Yahoo | 2025-12-31 |
| Asset turnover (×) | 0.77 | SEC | 2025-12-31, 2024-12-31 |
| Earnings stability | 0.72 | SEC | 2025-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2023-12-31 |
| Operating margin stability | — | — · Not calculable | — |
Stability ranges from 0 to 1: higher means lower variability over three observed positive fiscal years. It is not a probability of profit. Missing metrics remain unavailable.
Annual fallback provider values
yfinance · USD
First acquired: 2026-09-23T18:44:21.036611Z
| Fiscal year end | Revenue | Net income | Operating cash flow | Capital expenditure (signed flow) | Total assets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 87,637,000,000 | 11,308,000,000 | 17,548,000,000 | -348,000,000 | 123,039,000,000 |
| 2024-12-31 | 75,343,000,000 | 8,480,000,000 | 15,119,000,000 | -285,000,000 | 105,745,000,000 |
| 2023-12-31 | 62,083,000,000 | 3,903,000,000 | 10,643,000,000 | -252,000,000 | 88,691,000,000 |
| 2022-12-31 | 49,587,000,000 | 722,000,000 | 6,849,000,000 | -292,000,000 | 75,465,000,000 |
Sources and selection reasons
- Asset turnover (×): Calculated from SEC statements with consistent periods, currency and definitions.
- Earnings stability: Calculated from SEC statements with consistent periods, currency and definitions.
- Free cash flow growth: SEC definition not yet mapped; the fallback provider is used where available.
- Interest coverage (×): SEC definition not yet mapped; the fallback provider is used where available.
- Operating margin stability: SEC item missing; the calculation uses the fallback source entirely where available.
Show advanced data
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}Consistency across sources
Fiscal year end: 2025-12-31 · 4/4 compared values match
This is a numerical check of five items in the latest fiscal year, not independent accounting verification: Yahoo may derive from the same SEC filings. The positive Confidence contribution is limited; discrepancies apply a separate, visible reduction.
Confidence reduction for discrepancies: 0.0% · Δ 0.00
Show advanced data
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}Check against official statements
Numerical SEC–Yahoo comparison by fiscal year and currency. Matching numbers do not certify identical accounting definitions. Metric sources and the effect on reliability are shown above.
Matching values across compared fiscal years: 14 · Differences to review: 0 · Non-comparable or missing values: 28
First acquired: 2026-09-23T18:44:26.679427Z
Fiscal year end 2025-12-31
10-K · Filed on 2026-03-02
Read the document ↗| Metric | SEC | Yahoo | Comparison result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 87,671,000,000 USD | 87,637,000,000 USD | Matches within tolerance |
| Operating income | — | — | Official value missing |
| Net income | 11,308,000,000 USD | 11,308,000,000 USD | Matches within tolerance |
| Operating cash flow | 17,548,000,000 USD | 17,548,000,000 USD | Matches within tolerance |
| Total assets | 123,039,000,000 USD | 123,039,000,000 USD | Matches within tolerance |
| Payments for property, plant and equipment | 348,000,000 USD | — | Distinct component: not compared |
| Payments for software development | — | — | Official value missing |
Value provenance and definitions
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}Fiscal year end 2024-12-31
10-K · Filed on 2026-03-02
Read the document ↗| Metric | SEC | Yahoo | Comparison result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 75,372,000,000 USD | 75,343,000,000 USD | Matches within tolerance |
| Operating income | — | — | Official value missing |
| Net income | 8,480,000,000 USD | 8,480,000,000 USD | Matches within tolerance |
| Operating cash flow | 15,119,000,000 USD | 15,119,000,000 USD | Matches within tolerance |
| Total assets | 105,745,000,000 USD | 105,745,000,000 USD | Matches within tolerance |
| Payments for property, plant and equipment | 285,000,000 USD | — | Distinct component: not compared |
| Payments for software development | — | — | Official value missing |
Value provenance and definitions
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}Fiscal year end 2023-12-31
10-K · Filed on 2026-03-02
Read the document ↗| Metric | SEC | Yahoo | Comparison result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 62,109,000,000 USD | 62,083,000,000 USD | Matches within tolerance |
| Operating income | — | — | Official value missing |
| Net income | 3,903,000,000 USD | 3,903,000,000 USD | Matches within tolerance |
| Operating cash flow | 10,643,000,000 USD | 10,643,000,000 USD | Matches within tolerance |
| Total assets | — | 88,691,000,000 USD | Official value missing |
| Payments for property, plant and equipment | 252,000,000 USD | — | Distinct component: not compared |
| Payments for software development | — | — | Official value missing |
Value provenance and definitions
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}Fiscal year end 2022-12-31
10-K · Filed on 2025-03-03
Read the document ↗| Metric | SEC | Yahoo | Comparison result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 49,611,000,000 USD | 49,587,000,000 USD | Matches within tolerance |
| Operating income | — | — | Official value missing |
| Net income | 722,000,000 USD | 722,000,000 USD | Matches within tolerance |
| Operating cash flow | 6,849,000,000 USD | 6,849,000,000 USD | Matches within tolerance |
| Total assets | — | 75,465,000,000 USD | Official value missing |
| Payments for property, plant and equipment | 292,000,000 USD | — | Distinct component: not compared |
| Payments for software development | — | — | Official value missing |
Value provenance and definitions
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}Fiscal year end 2021-12-31
10-K · Filed on 2024-02-26
Read the document ↗| Metric | SEC | Yahoo | Comparison result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 47,702,000,000 USD | — | Yahoo value missing |
| Operating income | — | — | Official value missing |
| Net income | 3,350,900,000 USD | — | Yahoo value missing |
| Operating cash flow | 7,761,700,000 USD | — | Yahoo value missing |
| Total assets | — | — | Official value missing |
| Payments for property, plant and equipment | 243,500,000 USD | — | Distinct component: not compared |
| Payments for software development | — | — | Official value missing |
Value provenance and definitions
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"yahoo_value": null,
"yahoo_currency": "USD",
"delta": null,
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},
{
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}
],
"period_end": "2021-12-31",
"url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/80661/000008066124000007/0000080661-24-000007-index.html"
}
}Fiscal year end 2020-12-31
10-K · Filed on 2023-02-27
Read the document ↗| Metric | SEC | Yahoo | Comparison result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 42,658,100,000 USD | — | Yahoo value missing |
| Operating income | — | — | Official value missing |
| Net income | 5,704,600,000 USD | — | Yahoo value missing |
| Operating cash flow | 6,905,600,000 USD | — | Yahoo value missing |
| Total assets | — | — | Official value missing |
| Payments for property, plant and equipment | 223,500,000 USD | — | Distinct component: not compared |
| Payments for software development | — | — | Official value missing |
Value provenance and definitions
{
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"policy": {
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"period": {
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"metrics": [
{
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{
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{
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"label": "Net Cash Provided by (Used in) Operating Activities",
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{
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{
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"evidence": [
{
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},
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}SEC payments for property and software development are distinct components. They are not automatically equated with Yahoo capital expenditure or free cash flow. No implicit summation or reconstruction.
Valuation versus its own history
Current P/E 10.7 versus a historical median of 20.8 over 9 fiscal years: score 100.0.
| Fiscal year end | Diluted EPS (split-adjusted) | Average price over the following 52 weeks | P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | 1.76 | 44.72 | 25.4 |
| 2017-12-31 | 2.72 | 62.29 | 22.9 |
| 2018-12-31 | 4.42 | 74.27 | 16.8 |
| 2019-12-31 | 6.72 | 85.03 | 12.7 |
| 2020-12-31 | 9.66 | 95.29 | 9.9 |
| 2021-12-31 | 5.66 | 117.53 | 20.8 |
| 2022-12-31 | 1.18 | 140.05 | 118.7 |
| 2023-12-31 | 6.58 | 220.69 | 33.5 |
| 2024-12-31 | 14.40 | 251.76 | 17.5 |
For each past fiscal year with positive earnings: average weekly price in the 12 months after the year end divided by the diluted EPS in the 10-K (SEC), adjusted for splits after the filing. The current P/E uses the latest price and latest annual EPS, the same definition. Score 50 at the median, 100 at two thirds of it, 0 at 1.5 times (log scale). At least 3 fiscal years are required. A stock expensive versus its own history can stay so: not a forecast.
SEC XBRL · Yahoo · historical-pe-v1
Insurance metrics
From annual SEC statements (US-GAAP) of property & casualty insurers. Loss ratio (claims over earned premiums, lower is better) and premium growth are compared with other insurers; acquisition costs, investment yield and equity/assets are shown but not scored because they depend on business mix. A full combined ratio is not computed: other underwriting expenses are not tagged consistently.
| Metric | Value | Use |
|---|---|---|
| Loss ratio (claims / earned premiums) | 66.08% | in the Quality score |
| Earned premium growth | 15.34% | in the Quality score |
| Acquisition costs / premiums | 7.47% | information only |
| Equity / assets | 24.65% | information only |
| Net investment income / investments | 3.64% | information only |
Fiscal year end: 2025-12-31 · SEC XBRL 0000080661-26-000086 · insurance-annual-v1
Earnings revisions
How analyst expectations change. An indicator separate from company quality: it is not a probability of price appreciation.
Score · current year69.7/100
EPS · 30-day change1.1%
EPS analysts23
Acquired on: 2026-09-28T14:21:22.925242Z · yfinance
Current quarter · 80.4
EPS: 4.2014 USD · EPS analysts: 19
| Prior estimate | EPS | Δ EPS | Δ % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | 4.0765 | 0.1248 | 3.1% |
| 30d | 3.9344 | 0.2670 | 6.8% |
| 60d | 3.6503 | 0.5511 | 15.1% |
| 90d | 3.7010 | 0.5004 | 13.5% |
Upward / downward revisions: 7d ↑ 2 / ↓ 0 · 30d ↑ 18 / ↓ 2
Revenue consensus: 22,407,857,140 USD
Next quarter · 48.3
EPS: 4.1156 USD · EPS analysts: 19
| Prior estimate | EPS | Δ EPS | Δ % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | 4.1925 | -0.0769 | -1.8% |
| 30d | 4.1671 | -0.0514 | -1.2% |
| 60d | 4.1237 | -0.0081 | -0.2% |
| 90d | 4.1596 | -0.0440 | -1.1% |
Upward / downward revisions: 7d ↑ 1 / ↓ 1 · 30d ↑ 10 / ↓ 10
Revenue consensus: 20,308,814,290 USD
Current year · 69.7
EPS: 18.0867 USD · EPS analysts: 23
| Prior estimate | EPS | Δ EPS | Δ % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | 18.0267 | 0.0600 | 0.3% |
| 30d | 17.8926 | 0.1941 | 1.1% |
| 60d | 17.5991 | 0.4876 | 2.8% |
| 90d | 17.2440 | 0.8427 | 4.9% |
Upward / downward revisions: 7d ↑ 2 / ↓ 0 · 30d ↑ 18 / ↓ 1
Revenue consensus: 87,422,066,670 USD
Next year · —
EPS: 1,012.0000 USD · EPS analysts: 1
| Prior estimate | EPS | Δ EPS | Δ % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7d | 0.0000 | 1,012.0000 | — |
| 30d | 0.0000 | 1,012.0000 | — |
| 60d | 0.0000 | 1,012.0000 | — |
| 90d | 0.0000 | 1,012.0000 | — |
Upward / downward revisions: 7d ↑ 1 / ↓ 0 · 30d ↑ 9 / ↓ 6
Revenue consensus: 92,493,211,110 USD
Percentage change is not calculated for negative, near-zero or sign-changing earnings. · Score unavailable: at least 3 analysts, comparable estimates and sufficient window coverage are required.
Method, limitations and source data
Heuristic 0–100 score: EPS change magnitude (65%) and 30-day revision balance (35%). The 7/30/60/90-day windows weigh 10/40/20/30%; changes from −20% to +20% map to 0–100. The summary always uses the current year. Weights and contributions are available below.
Periods are relative to acquisition: this feed provides no verified fiscal end. Currency and EPS accounting basis are not independently verified. Counts represent revisions, not necessarily distinct analysts. Prior estimates were acquired with this snapshot and were not available to this system at their past dates. Guidance is unavailable from this source.
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}Trading plan and history
Trading Setup · 15 sessions
Entry—
Technical target—
Invalidation—
Score history
At least two observations are needed. History starts with the new version's observations.
Thesis and scenarios
Thesis memory
How Krazerr's reading of this stock changed, day by day. Derived from immutable snapshots: the past is never rewritten.
Model updated (not like-for-like)
Why now: Earnings revisions 70
Main concern: rich valuation
Market regime: Risk-on · investment-intelligence-v1.22
First available reading
Why now: Earnings revisions 70
Main concern: rich valuation
Market regime: Risk-on · investment-intelligence-v1.21
thesis-memory-v1 · Changes reported from 10 points, only within the same model version.
Scenario Lab
Estimated scenario sensitivity based on model assumptions and historical relationships. Not a prediction or calibrated probability interval.
Events, news and filings
Events and calendar
Events that could change the thesis. Materiality is a declared rule on structured facts: it is neither a price forecast nor a positive or negative judgement.
Effect on risk
From model v1.6 the risk «Events» family uses these values (higher = more risk). An unknown date stays unavailable; it is not read as no upcoming earnings.
| Risk | /100 | Why this score |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings risk | 43 | scheduled earnings: 90 within 5 days, 20 beyond 21 · in 16 days |
| Material event risk | 21 | material SEC filing in the last 30 days, weight decreasing with age |
event-risk-v1 · event-materiality-v1
Next earnings2026-10-14in 16 days · date confirmed by the provider
Latest EPS surprise0.3%Quarter ended 2026-06-30
High-materiality events0last 30 days
Scheduled
Upcoming ex-dividend date
Yahoo Finance · scheduled
Materiality 15 · lowStated annual dividend 0.4000 USD · Payment 2026-10-09
Why this materiality
- Materiality
- Regular dividend
- Confidence
- 65/100 · provider calendar
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:21.914748Z
{
"id": "yf:ex-dividend:PGR:2026-10-01",
"observation_id": "79095e5204fecfe8ba4bfd4ff579f007d1e8a52fa03e9cb8ad6046136b1114d0",
"corroborated_by": null,
"processed_at": "2026-09-23T18:44:21.914748Z",
"time_precision": "date",
"period_end": null
}Scheduled earnings
Yahoo Finance · scheduled · date confirmed by the provider
Materiality 60 · mediumWhy this materiality
- Materiality
- Upcoming earnings: may change expected earnings and the thesis
- Confidence
- 65/100 · confirmed date
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:21.914748Z
{
"id": "yf:earnings:PGR:2026-10-14T12:30:00.000000Z",
"observation_id": "79095e5204fecfe8ba4bfd4ff579f007d1e8a52fa03e9cb8ad6046136b1114d0",
"corroborated_by": null,
"processed_at": "2026-09-23T18:44:21.914748Z",
"time_precision": "datetime",
"period_end": null
}Relevant event timeline
Operating results and financial condition · 8-K
SEC · filed
Materiality 45 · mediumRead the document ↗Why this materiality
- Materiality
- Operating results and financial condition
- Confidence
- 95/100 · items declared in the SEC filing
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z
{
"id": "sec:0000080661:0000080661-26-000262",
"observation_id": "738bf1a9a9a20b5f2489d0ab62e729520a5ad9f1de54e5b1f04ad988a30cdc9f",
"corroborated_by": null,
"processed_at": "2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z",
"time_precision": "datetime",
"period_end": null
}Quarterly results released
Yahoo Finance · released · EPS in line with estimate
Materiality 46 · mediumEPS 4.8543 · Estimate 4.8382 · Surprise 0.3% · Quarter ended 2026-06-30
Why this materiality
- Materiality
- Results released · size of the surprise versus the estimate
- Confidence
- 52/100 · release date unavailable
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:21.914748Z
{
"id": "yf:earnings-result:PGR:2026-06-30",
"observation_id": "79095e5204fecfe8ba4bfd4ff579f007d1e8a52fa03e9cb8ad6046136b1114d0",
"corroborated_by": null,
"processed_at": "2026-09-23T18:44:21.914748Z",
"time_precision": "quarter_end_only",
"period_end": "2026-06-30"
}Directors, officers or compensation · 8-K
SEC · filed
Materiality 55 · mediumRead the document ↗Why this materiality
- Materiality
- Directors, officers or compensation
- Confidence
- 95/100 · items declared in the SEC filing
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z
{
"id": "sec:0000080661:0000080661-26-000210",
"observation_id": "738bf1a9a9a20b5f2489d0ab62e729520a5ad9f1de54e5b1f04ad988a30cdc9f",
"corroborated_by": null,
"processed_at": "2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z",
"time_precision": "datetime",
"period_end": null
}Directors, officers or compensation · 8-K
SEC · filed
Materiality 55 · mediumRead the document ↗Why this materiality
- Materiality
- Directors, officers or compensation
- Confidence
- 95/100 · items declared in the SEC filing
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z
{
"id": "sec:0000080661:0000080661-26-000200",
"observation_id": "738bf1a9a9a20b5f2489d0ab62e729520a5ad9f1de54e5b1f04ad988a30cdc9f",
"corroborated_by": null,
"processed_at": "2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z",
"time_precision": "datetime",
"period_end": null
}Operating results and financial condition · 8-K
SEC · filed
Materiality 45 · mediumRead the document ↗Why this materiality
- Materiality
- Operating results and financial condition
- Confidence
- 95/100 · items declared in the SEC filing
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z
{
"id": "sec:0000080661:0000080661-26-000173",
"observation_id": "738bf1a9a9a20b5f2489d0ab62e729520a5ad9f1de54e5b1f04ad988a30cdc9f",
"corroborated_by": null,
"processed_at": "2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z",
"time_precision": "datetime",
"period_end": null
}Quarterly results released
Yahoo Finance · released · EPS in line with estimate
Materiality 48 · mediumEPS 4.9631 · Estimate 4.8847 · Surprise 1.6% · Quarter ended 2026-03-31
Why this materiality
- Materiality
- Results released · size of the surprise versus the estimate
- Confidence
- 52/100 · release date unavailable
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:21.914748Z
{
"id": "yf:earnings-result:PGR:2026-03-31",
"observation_id": "79095e5204fecfe8ba4bfd4ff579f007d1e8a52fa03e9cb8ad6046136b1114d0",
"corroborated_by": null,
"processed_at": "2026-09-23T18:44:21.914748Z",
"time_precision": "quarter_end_only",
"period_end": "2026-03-31"
}Annual report · 10-K
SEC · filed
Materiality 40 · mediumRead the document ↗Why this materiality
- Materiality
- Annual report
- Confidence
- 95/100 · items declared in the SEC filing
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z
{
"id": "sec:0000080661:0000080661-26-000086",
"observation_id": "738bf1a9a9a20b5f2489d0ab62e729520a5ad9f1de54e5b1f04ad988a30cdc9f",
"corroborated_by": null,
"processed_at": "2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z",
"time_precision": "datetime",
"period_end": null
}Operating results and financial condition · Directors, officers or compensation · 8-K
SEC · filed
Materiality 55 · mediumRead the document ↗Why this materiality
- Materiality
- Operating results and financial condition · Directors, officers or compensation
- Confidence
- 95/100 · items declared in the SEC filing
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z
{
"id": "sec:0000080661:0000080661-26-000071",
"observation_id": "738bf1a9a9a20b5f2489d0ab62e729520a5ad9f1de54e5b1f04ad988a30cdc9f",
"corroborated_by": null,
"processed_at": "2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z",
"time_precision": "datetime",
"period_end": null
}Quarterly results released
Yahoo Finance · released · EPS above estimate
Materiality 56 · mediumEPS 4.6684 · Estimate 4.4323 · Surprise 5.3% · Quarter ended 2025-12-31
Why this materiality
- Materiality
- Results released · size of the surprise versus the estimate
- Confidence
- 52/100 · release date unavailable
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:21.914748Z
{
"id": "yf:earnings-result:PGR:2025-12-31",
"observation_id": "79095e5204fecfe8ba4bfd4ff579f007d1e8a52fa03e9cb8ad6046136b1114d0",
"corroborated_by": null,
"processed_at": "2026-09-23T18:44:21.914748Z",
"time_precision": "quarter_end_only",
"period_end": "2025-12-31"
}Operating results and financial condition · 8-K
SEC · filed
Materiality 45 · mediumRead the document ↗Why this materiality
- Materiality
- Operating results and financial condition
- Confidence
- 95/100 · items declared in the SEC filing
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z
{
"id": "sec:0000080661:0000080661-25-000126",
"observation_id": "738bf1a9a9a20b5f2489d0ab62e729520a5ad9f1de54e5b1f04ad988a30cdc9f",
"corroborated_by": null,
"processed_at": "2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z",
"time_precision": "datetime",
"period_end": null
}58 low-materiality events (dividends, splits, unclassified documents) are not listed here; they remain available through the API and in the document catalog. Company filings and events ↓
Method, limitations and rules
Materiality 0–100 from versioned rules: declared 8-K items (for example bankruptcy 95, non-reliance on statements 90, officer changes 55), form type, scheduled earnings (60, +15 within 14 days), released results (45 plus up to 40 in proportion to the EPS surprise, saturating at 20%). High from 70, medium from 40. Sentiment exists only for the EPS surprise (±2%). Confidence reflects source and date precision.
Heuristic rules not calibrated on returns; document text is not read. The Yahoo calendar is not a primary source and results history lacks release dates. Macro events (Fed, CPI, PCE, jobs), guidance, M&A and news are not yet connected. Events do not change the scores.
Last checked UTC: yfinance 2026-09-28T14:21:23.362206Z · sec-edgar 2026-09-28T19:18:32.838894Z · event-materiality-v1
{
"version": "event-materiality-v1",
"bands": {
"high": 70,
"medium": 40
},
"source_quality": {
"sec-edgar": 95,
"yfinance": 65
},
"sec_topics": {
"bankruptcy": 95,
"restatement": 90,
"debt_trigger": 75,
"auditor": 70,
"listing": 70,
"cybersecurity": 65,
"impairment": 65,
"asset_transaction": 65,
"restructuring": 60,
"management": 55,
"agreement": 50,
"equity": 45,
"debt": 45,
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},
"sec_unclassified": 25,
"unclassified_confidence_multiplier": 0.6,
"earnings_scheduled": 60,
"earnings_imminent_bonus": 15,
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"earnings_reported": 45,
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"confidence_multipliers": {
"confirmed": 1.0,
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"date_passed_unconfirmed": 0.5
},
"corroborated_confidence": 90,
"corroboration_days": 1,
"result_link_max_days": 120,
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}News that could change the thesis
- Reflecting On Property & Casualty Insurance Stocks’ Q2 Earnings: Progressive (NYSE:PGR)
09/25/2026 · StockStory · Results · Materiality 48 · Could touch: Company Quality, Earnings revisions
9 feed headlines not shown (commentary or comparisons 1, low materiality 3, not about the company 5)
Headlines only from Yahoo Finance (an aggregator, not a primary source): article text is neither read nor stored. Only news naming the company is shown, classified with declared rules; materiality is not a positive or negative judgement and news does not enter the scores. · news-events-v1
Company filings and events
Official SEC documents. Categories describe the declared topics, not price impact: open the source to verify what changed. These documents do not automatically change scores.
Quarterly report
SEC · 10-Q
Read the document ↗Dates and provenance
- SEC accession
- 0000080661-23-000037
- Reported reference date
- 2023-06-30
- Acceptance reported by SEC (UTC)
- 2023-08-01T14:13:34.000000Z
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z
- Declared form sections
- —
The main date is the filing date, not necessarily the event date. Acceptance time is provider-reported. First acquired indicates when Krazerr observed the document; metadata revisions retain their own acquisition dates.
Operating results and financial condition
SEC · 8-K
Read the document ↗Dates and provenance
- SEC accession
- 0000080661-23-000034
- Reported reference date
- 2023-07-13
- Acceptance reported by SEC (UTC)
- 2023-07-13T14:44:12.000000Z
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z
- Declared form sections
- 2.02, 9.01
The main date is the filing date, not necessarily the event date. Acceptance time is provider-reported. First acquired indicates when Krazerr observed the document; metadata revisions retain their own acquisition dates.
Company disclosure
SEC · 8-K
Read the document ↗Dates and provenance
- SEC accession
- 0000080661-23-000031
- Reported reference date
- 2023-06-14
- Acceptance reported by SEC (UTC)
- 2023-06-14T12:46:46.000000Z
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z
- Declared form sections
- 7.01, 9.01
The main date is the filing date, not necessarily the event date. Acceptance time is provider-reported. First acquired indicates when Krazerr observed the document; metadata revisions retain their own acquisition dates.
Company disclosure
SEC · 8-K
Read the document ↗Dates and provenance
- SEC accession
- 0001193125-23-153743
- Reported reference date
- 2023-05-22
- Acceptance reported by SEC (UTC)
- 2023-05-25T13:27:01.000000Z
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z
- Declared form sections
- 8.01, 9.01
The main date is the filing date, not necessarily the event date. Acceptance time is provider-reported. First acquired indicates when Krazerr observed the document; metadata revisions retain their own acquisition dates.
Company disclosure
SEC · 8-K
Read the document ↗Dates and provenance
- SEC accession
- 0000080661-23-000028
- Reported reference date
- 2023-05-17
- Acceptance reported by SEC (UTC)
- 2023-05-17T12:40:33.000000Z
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z
- Declared form sections
- 7.01, 9.01
The main date is the filing date, not necessarily the event date. Acceptance time is provider-reported. First acquired indicates when Krazerr observed the document; metadata revisions retain their own acquisition dates.
Company disclosure
SEC · 8-K
Read the document ↗Dates and provenance
- SEC accession
- 0000080661-23-000025
- Reported reference date
- 2023-05-12
- Acceptance reported by SEC (UTC)
- 2023-05-15T21:00:16.000000Z
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z
- Declared form sections
- 5.07, 7.01, 9.01
The main date is the filing date, not necessarily the event date. Acceptance time is provider-reported. First acquired indicates when Krazerr observed the document; metadata revisions retain their own acquisition dates.
Quarterly report
SEC · 10-Q
Read the document ↗Dates and provenance
- SEC accession
- 0000080661-23-000023
- Reported reference date
- 2023-03-31
- Acceptance reported by SEC (UTC)
- 2023-05-02T15:19:04.000000Z
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z
- Declared form sections
- —
The main date is the filing date, not necessarily the event date. Acceptance time is provider-reported. First acquired indicates when Krazerr observed the document; metadata revisions retain their own acquisition dates.
Operating results and financial condition
SEC · 8-K
Read the document ↗Dates and provenance
- SEC accession
- 0000080661-23-000019
- Reported reference date
- 2023-04-13
- Acceptance reported by SEC (UTC)
- 2023-04-13T13:26:35.000000Z
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z
- Declared form sections
- 2.02, 9.01
The main date is the filing date, not necessarily the event date. Acceptance time is provider-reported. First acquired indicates when Krazerr observed the document; metadata revisions retain their own acquisition dates.
Company disclosure
SEC · 8-K
Read the document ↗Dates and provenance
- SEC accession
- 0000080661-23-000012
- Reported reference date
- 2023-03-15
- Acceptance reported by SEC (UTC)
- 2023-03-15T14:09:01.000000Z
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z
- Declared form sections
- 7.01, 9.01
The main date is the filing date, not necessarily the event date. Acceptance time is provider-reported. First acquired indicates when Krazerr observed the document; metadata revisions retain their own acquisition dates.
Directors, officers or compensation
SEC · 8-K
Read the document ↗Dates and provenance
- SEC accession
- 0000080661-23-000010
- Reported reference date
- 2023-03-07
- Acceptance reported by SEC (UTC)
- 2023-03-07T21:43:17.000000Z
- First acquired
- 2026-09-23T18:44:22.527572Z
- Declared form sections
- 5.02, 7.01, 9.01
The main date is the filing date, not necessarily the event date. Acceptance time is provider-reported. First acquired indicates when Krazerr observed the document; metadata revisions retain their own acquisition dates.
Last checked UTC: 2026-09-28T19:18:32.838894Z · Up to 100 documents from the recent SEC catalog; not a complete archive
In your portfolio
Source / Model version
Calculated at: 2026-09-28T17:39:29.512620Z
Plus 198 peer company observations, summarised here; the full list stays in the analysis feature snapshot.
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]Model scores, not personal recommendations. Missing data is not zero.
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